From confidence to caution

The shortest month of the year certainly didn't feel brief as markets lurched in response from one geopolitical drama to another.

US markets took the brunt of the damage as Trump's proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada led to inflation fears. Consumer confidence numbers didn't help matters, and lingering fears over the sustainability of earnings from big US tech stocks saw the NASDAQ suffer its biggest monthly decline in ten months.

As the month progressed, Trump's willingness to cut support for Ukraine in its war against Russia became more apparent, forcing many European leaders to start reappraising defence spending. Germany announced plans to lift the constitutional limit on borrowing (aka the 'debt brake') that's been in place since 2009, and in turn greatly increase spending on defence and infrastructure.

Here in the UK, large banks, defence and big pharmaceutical companies lifted the FTSE 100 higher. Sterling strengthened over the period, and despite the UK budget having been received poorly, consensus being that the UK government has failed to hit the ground running, the UK equity market, like other non-US equities, delivered positive returns above 5%. In doing so, the FTSE 100 hit all-time highs.

In China, good results from Alibaba and the ongoing ramifications of DeepSeek's Al reveal in January, continued the recent tech-stock fueled equities revival. Conversely, DeepSeek raising question marks about US tech's ability to dominate the Al market was still hampering US tech equities. Its innovative product seems to be capable of delivering the same results by using far less computational power than its US rivals, and at a fraction of the cost. Emerging markets also benefited from a weakening dollar.

The Japanese equity market declined and finished February with a negative return. The Nikkei fell due to weak performance from large tech and exporters. Developments in the US also had a knock-on effect, leading to a sell-off of Al-related stocks. `

Bond markets were generally positive as fears of a slowdown in the US resulted in gains across fixed income markets. Global bonds proved to be a good diversifier against equity losses.

Strong performance and positive returns in fixed income served as an important reminder that investors need to remain diversified to help protect portfolios against any further volatility that may lie ahead.

Commodities were pulled back as fears of a global slowdown grew. Meanwhile gold continued to act as a go-to asset class for investors seeking safety in these uncertain times.

Looking forward, we expect the year to be interesting, and challenging, as no one quite knows exactly what to expect from Trump.  As ever, markets do not like uncertainty. However, this will not be the only story for markets, and it is likely that select opportunities will present themselves.

If you have any questions related to the above or require any advice, please email info@greenarch.uk.